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China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence

We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply …

The Crypto Cycle and US Monetary Policy

This paper studies variation in crypto markets globally, their interaction with equity markets, and their response to US monetary policy. We first identify a single “crypto factor” that explains 80% of variation in crypto prices. Second, we show that …

AI and Services-Led Growth: Evidence from Indian Job Adverts

We document near-exponential growth in the demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related skills in India’s services sector since 2016, using a new dataset of online vacancies from its largest jobs website. This coincides with the take-off in …

The Role of Market Structure and Timing in Determining VAT Pass-Through

We investigate the substantial variation in the extent to which a rise in value-added tax (VAT) is passed on to consumers. We first extend existing theory to characterize the roles of imperfect competition and product differentiation, then …